It’s hard to believe Moderna (MRNA) once had a market cap exceeding $204 billion. That was in August 2021 at or near the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.  

As a result of Moderna possessing one of the leading global vaccines to beat back the virus, its valuation was 20x what it is today. 

On Monday, MRNA moved up seven spots in Barchart’s Bottom 100 Stocks to Buy, into the 86th position. It is the largest of the 100 by market cap, and MRNA stock has the highest share price of the unglorious group. 

Only 28 stocks are outside penny-stock territory (over $5). Moderna is the cream of this poor crop at $26 and change, down 81% over the past 12 months. 

Size alone does not make Moderna a stock to buy unless you are a super speculative investor. Here’s why. 

There Are Plenty of Options

I don’t mean calls and puts. 

I’m referring to the fact that there are 20 stocks in the S&P Midcap 400 with market caps between $10.7 billion and $9.7 billion ($500 million higher and lower than Moderna) and 11 in the S&P 500, one of which is Moderna, providing investors with plenty of options that make money and possess business models less prone to breaking under duress. 

Of the 11 in the S&P 500, Moderna is the only one losing money on a per-share basis over the trailing 12 months, while on the S&P Midcap 400, all 20 are profitable. 

So, the first question I might ask is why an investor would bet on this money loser. 

Like a lottery ticket, there is the allure of winning big off a small bet. After all, 100 shares of MRNA stock will only set you back $2,600. If the share price were to return to its all-time high of $497.49 (Aug. 9, 2021) in five years, your annualized return would be a whopping 80%. 

That’s hard to resist. 

However, forgetting for a moment, any of the 31 stocks within $500 million of Moderna, there are 27 stocks in the S&P 500 with smaller market caps than the vaccine maker. I find it hard to believe that not one of them has the potential to match this hypothetical return for Moderna. 

Generac Holdings Is a Possibility

The Wisconsin-based maker of backup and portable generators has seen the shine come off its stock in recent years. 

Like Moderna, Generac (GNRC) traded at an all-time high in 2021. Since hitting $524.31 on Nov. 1, 2021, its share price has fallen 75% in the 43 months since, almost as big a fall from grace as Moderna. 

Yet, it managed to generate a profit of $44 million in Q1 2025 on a GAAP basis (69% higher year-over-year), and $75 million on an adjusted basis (42% YOY). Moderna lost $971 million in Q1 2025 on a GAAP basis on just $108 million in net revenue, down from $167 million a year earlier. 

Moderna’s trailing 12-month revenues were $3.18 billion as of March 31, down from $19.26 billion at the end of 2022, and a 43.4% net profit margin. 

Meanwhile, Generac’s trailing 12-month revenues as of March 31 were $4.35 billion, down from a record $4.56 billion at the end of 2022. 

Of course, margins are the big difference between the two companies at their 2019 peak financials. Generac’s $350.3 million net profit in 2022 resulted in a 7.7% net margin, about one-sixth as large as Moderna’s. 

The problem is you can’t hang your hat on potential. That’s what a bet on Moderna entails. 

The Potential Moderna Possesses

The company, under CEO Stéphane Bancel, is committed to cutting costs. It plans to reduce its annual operating costs by $1.55 billion annually by 2027. If it were successful, and its sales remained at 2024 levels ($3.24 billion), it would still lose money on an operating basis, although considerably less than the $4.24 billion in operating losses in 2023. 

In 2024, it cut $677 million from its R&D and S, G & A expenses, so $1.55 billion will be a tough ask for Bancel’s management team. 

However, Bancel owns 30.45 million shares of Moderna stock (7.7% of the stock). He has several billion reasons to get the stock price back in triple digits, and cost reductions could help get it partway there. 

In its 2024 annual report, Bancel set out three priorities for the company: 

1) drive future sales of its Spikevax and mRESVIA respiratory vaccines by adding manufacturing plants in the U.K., Canada and Australia in 2025 to meet the expected increase in demand.

2) Bring up to 10 products in its product pipeline to approval by the end of 2027, while also investing in R&D to get growth beyond this. 

3) To cut R&D by $1.1 billion by 2027, 24% of its 2024 R&D of $4.54 billion.

I don’t write about Moderna often, so I can’t say whether these are realistic. 

However, Moderna will have to execute at a very high level of efficiency if it wants to significantly cut its cost of sales and improve its operational leverage. 

Further, I don’t see how it can cut its R&D so aggressively and expect to deliver 10 or more new products from its development pipeline. 

The Bottom Line on MRNA Stock

I generally invest in moneymakers, not losers, so Moderna’s a no-go for me, and should be for most risk-averse investors. 

However, I like this longshot call for those with enough risk tolerance to make a speculative bet.

The $2.50 ask price is less than 10% of its share price. The delta of 0.22918 means you can double your money by selling before the call expires on Jan. 15/2027, if it appreciates $10.91 (41%).

However, should it do that, you might want to exercise your right to buy 100 MRNA shares. In the worst-case scenario, you’re out $250, hardly devastating in the big picture.