Grains Report 06/26/19

DJ Canadian 2019/20 Principal Field Crop Area – StatsCan
WINNIPEG–Following is Statistics Canada’s 2019/20
estimates of principal field crop area report. The figures are
as of June 11, 2019, in thousands of acres. Source: Statistics
Canada.
——acres——-
2019/20 2019/20 2018/19
June March
Barley 7,402 7,155 6,493
Edible Beans 351 325 353
Canary Seed 188 229 212
Canola 20,952 21,314 22,813
Chickpeas 384 334 443
Corn for grain 3,694 3,795 3,627
Fababeans 59 122 78
Flaxseed 937 1,000 857
Hemp 83 87 41
Lentils 3,778 3,405 3,768
Mixed grains 359 332 356
Mustard seed 399 416 504
Oats 3,606 3,291 3,053
Peas, dry 4,333 4,036 3,615
Rye 431 431 335
Soybeans 5,714 5,646 6,320
Sugar beets 37 n/a 47
Summerfallow 1,729 1,792 1,781
Sunflower seed 56 71 71
Total wheat 24,595 25,674 24,735
Durum wheat 4,894 5,021 6,185
Spring wheat 18,772 19,387 17,310
Winter wheat 929 1,265 1,238
*Total wheat includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter
wheat remaining after winterkill
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower as the market started to hear harvest results and also began to prepare for the reports on Friday. The weather is drier for harvesting in the southern Great Plains and the harvest is fully underway. High yields are being reported for the HRW crop and this is as it should be as the region saw a lot of rain during the growing season. It is finally turning drier in the Midwest so the Winter Wheat harvest should get underway soon. Yields might not be so impressive in this area due to the extreme weather seen over the Winter that probably caused Winterkill in addition to the rains that are causing diseases to break out. Protein levels for both HRW and SRW crops should be lower than normal due to the rains. Meanwhile, rains have improved in the northern Great Plains and into Canada and growing conditions for the Spring Wheat crops are improving. Additional rains were forecast for Canada over the weekend, and beneficial rains were reported. Conditions are also reported to be improving in Spring Wheat areas in Russia as temperatures are expected to moderate and some showers are expected. It is still hot and dry near the Black Sea so crops in these areas of Russia and Ukraine are being hurt. It is harvest time for Winter crops in these areas as well. Conditions are reported to be very hot in Europe and kernel fill could be affected.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see light to moderate precipitation off and on all week. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers late this week. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 555, 557, and 564 July. Support is at 529, 516, and 514 July, with resistance at 545, 551, and 556 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 462, 450, and 445 July, with resistance at 474, 481, and 487 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 541, 535, and 532 July, and resistance is at 553, 560, and 563 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday as USDA showed good progress and condition of the crop. There were more big rains near Houston, but crops there were in flood and are heading now, so the rains were termed beneficial by one producer. Funds and other speculators were the best sellers. The better crop development has created some selling interest for the last of the old crop Rice in producer storage. Mostly stable prices are reported in Asia. Indian price trends in the near future are a guess as the monsoon has been late to arrive, but the monsoon is active now in central and southern parts of the country. There are forecasts for reduced rains from the monsoon this year implying lower yields and lower overall production potential.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms on Tuesday and again over the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1072 and 1051 July. Support is at 1103, 1095, and 1089 July, with resistance at 1115, 1138, and 1146 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 26
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.25 8.22 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 12.75 8.80 0.00
Brokens 7.99 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed to higher as the market looks ahead to the big USDA reports on Friday. USDA will issue its quarterly stocks reports and planted area reports on Friday, and there is some concern that USDA will not be able to provide a good estimate on planted area due to all of the weather related delays this year. USDA is likely to show less planted area over time and there is also potential for yields to be cut further. The crop is planted for all intents and purposes and much of the crop has been planted in the last few weeks and is very short and very far behind normal progress. There is a chance that cold weather this Fall will catch much of the crop before it is mature and even more bushels could be lost. There is a long way to go before that can be a consideration, and the weather outlook for the coming week seems to be improved as warmer and drier conditions are forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 474 and 484 July. Support is at 440, 437, and 431 July, and resistance is at 454, 457, and 460 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 262 July. Support is at 268, 264, and 263 July, and resistance is at 275, 278, and 285 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower after trading higher early in the session. The weather is a feature in this market as it has been for Corn. Planting progress should get better now as the weather is turning drier in the Midwest. There will undoubtedly be yield loss and USDA will start to calculate the lost crop potential in its monthly updates next month. It seems unlikely now that lost Corn area will get planted to Soybeans as USDA is allowing cover crops to be harvested early in response to the lost Corn production. The trade is also worried about a permanent loss of demand from China due in part to the Swine Flu there and in other parts of Southeast Asia and the trade war with China. Neither side seems ready to make a deal right now although Trump and Xi will meet this week at the G-20 meetings to try to get talks going again. USDA will issue the quarterly stocks and planted area reports on Friday and the stocks should be very big due to the big production last year and the lost demand until now.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 145,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 953 July. Support is at 897, 894, and 891 July, and resistance is at 917, 920, and 921 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 315.00, 314.00, and 312.00 July, and resistance is at 321.00, 324.00, and 327.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2780, 2750, and 2730 July, with resistance at 2840, 2860, and 2870 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on reports of beneficial rains in some areas over the last few days and a ramp up of trade tensions with China. China has now banned all meat imports from Canada due to the problems with the Huawei executive held in Canada for extradition to the US. StatsCan will issue acreage updates on Wednesday and less Canola planted area is expected. There are reports that farmers are replanting crops and also talk of disease pressure. Some traders expect a sideways market until the crop prospects become more clear. Palm Oil was a little lower again on weaker demand as reported by the private services and ideas of strong production. September made new lows before showing a small recovery. The outside markets were lower. Overall the market is trying to develop a trading range near the lows. It has been a tough time getting Soybeans planted in the US and this is supporting Palm Oil. Demand ideas are improving on ideas China on increase buying, but ideas are that production remains high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 446.00 and 443.00 July. Support is at 446.00, 441.00, and 437.00 July, with resistance at 455.00, 458.00, and 460.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 1920 and 1800 September. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 September, with resistance at 2010, 2020, and 2040 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: More precipitation in all areas today, then drier. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June +80 July +163 July +78 July +73 July +1 July
July +57 July +80 July +53 July
August +48 September +65 September +42 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
June
July
August 110 August -15 August 40 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 25
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, June 25 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Friday, June 21 (delayed due
to technical issues at source).
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 439.10 -13.00 July 2019 dn 1.30
Track Thunder Bay 451.10 -5.00 Nov 2019 dn 9.00
Track Vancouver 461.10 -5.00 Nov 2019 dn 9.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
END

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 495.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 495.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 497.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 510.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
July 500.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 500.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 502.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 515.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 470.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 367.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1,920 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 135 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1445)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 118,448 lots, or 4.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 3,421 3,421 3,421 0 0 600
Sep-19 3,467 3,479 3,426 3,432 3,462 3,443 -19 106,046 134,798
Nov-19 3,490 3,490 3,430 3,448 3,450 3,464 14 20 126
Jan-20 3,465 3,478 3,433 3,435 3,460 3,445 -15 10,046 48,162
Mar-20 3,446 3,446 3,446 3,446 3,447 3,446 -1 2 36
May-20 3,542 3,552 3,518 3,523 3,540 3,527 -13 2,334 21,974
Corn
Turnover: 638,030 lots, or 12.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 1,908 1,908 1,894 1,894 1,900 1,897 -3 5,238 66,844
Sep-19 1,948 1,952 1,939 1,940 1,949 1,944 -5 426,630 1,009,244
Nov-19 1,979 1,984 1,970 1,972 1,982 1,976 -6 52,496 326,232
Jan-20 2,010 2,016 2,000 2,002 2,012 2,007 -5 137,424 557,798
Mar-20 2,031 2,031 2,020 2,021 2,029 2,025 -4 830 2,370
May-20 2,075 2,077 2,064 2,065 2,069 2,070 1 15,412 73,584
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,365,958 lots, or 68.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 2,838 2,847 2,800 2,805 2,838 2,823 -15 2,924 5,870
Aug-19 2,891 2,904 2,836 2,863 2,890 2,879 -11 77,662 171,110
Sep-19 2,905 2,926 2,861 2,887 2,908 2,890 -18 1,963,832 1,868,326
Nov-19 2,949 2,955 2,898 2,916 2,939 2,920 -19 536 8,418
Dec-19 2,945 2,945 2,900 2,909 2,933 2,916 -17 178 782
Jan-20 2,946 2,964 2,902 2,924 2,944 2,931 -13 270,808 412,820
Mar-20 2,786 2,858 2,786 2,846 2,863 2,828 -35 300 844
May-20 2,768 2,780 2,732 2,748 2,767 2,753 -14 49,718 168,952
Palm Oil
Turnover: 703,472 lots, or 30.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 4,100 4,102 4,100 4,102 4,268 4,100 -168 12 8
Aug-19 – – – 4,198 4,370 4,198 -172 0 2
Sep-19 4,290 4,294 4,244 4,256 4,296 4,268 -28 614,122 685,652
Oct-19 – – – 4,370 4,370 4,370 0 0 14
Nov-19 4,518 4,518 4,400 4,400 4,446 4,474 28 42 20
Dec-19 – – – 4,366 4,340 4,366 26 0 12
Jan-20 4,486 4,498 4,464 4,470 4,496 4,484 -12 85,910 173,002
Feb-20 – – – 4,482 4,482 4,482 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,608 4,608 4,608 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,598 4,598 4,598 0 0 4
May-20 4,708 4,714 4,684 4,690 4,712 4,696 -16 3,386 10,316
Jun-20 – – – 4,722 4,722 4,722 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 382,120 lots, or 20.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-19 – – – 5,420 5,420 5,420 0 0 2
Aug-19 5,268 5,268 5,268 5,268 5,360 5,268 -92 4 32
Sep-19 5,390 5,406 5,354 5,372 5,400 5,380 -20 326,880 726,150
Nov-19 5,490 5,490 5,440 5,490 5,500 5,472 -28 6 6
Dec-19 – – – 5,478 5,506 5,478 -28 0 18
Jan-20 5,552 5,568 5,512 5,528 5,560 5,540 -20 51,898 188,092
Mar-20 – – – 5,638 5,658 5,638 -20 0 12
May-20 5,662 5,682 5,588 5,644 5,678 5,650 -28 3,332 17,890
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.